For home owners that are planning to downsize, upgrade or relocate, deciding whether to buy first or sell first can be challenging. Making an informed decision requires a good understanding of the existing housing market conditions.
For several years Ontario has been in a strong seller’s market—especially with respect to detached, semi-detached and townhouse home types. This lengthy seller’s market has seen consistent growth in buyer demand, with inventory growth lagging well behind. As a result housing prices have soared.
In a seller’s market it is often best to buy first and sell your existing home later.
Having a home to live in while searching for a new home provides the luxury of a stress-free experience without the time pressure of making a deal before a looming closing date arrives on an already sold home. In the words of Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) Registrar Joseph Richer “you can be confident in having time to find that special home that ticks most or all of the ‘must haves’ on your new home wish list”1. Additionally when you buy first in a strong seller’s market your home may appreciate in value when the market rises in the time between your purchase and your sale. This could mean more money in your pocket than you originally anticipated.
But there are some risks to consider and it’s important to fully discuss these with your Realtor® before committing one way or another. Downward market swings for example can create an unexpected shortfall of funds. The sharp drop in average home prices in early 2017 is an example of a recent downward market swing. Government measures aimed at cooling the market alongside a run on deposits at Home Capital—one of Canada’s biggest subprime borrowers - resulted in a significant drop in average home prices over a period of only a few months in early 2017.2 As a result homeowners that made their purchase right before the downturn were suddenly faced with a “buy high, sell low” scenario leaving some of them lacking the required funds to successfully close on their purchase.
Predicting these types of market downturns or timing the market to capitalize on these changes is challenging at best.
A “buyer’s market” is when there is an oversupply of housing and a shortage of buyers. In a buyer’s market buyers typically have more negotiating power than sellers. In this type of market or in a “neutral” or “balanced” market it is usually best to sell first and buy later.
One of the primary benefits of selling first is knowing exactly how much capital there is to put toward your next home, ensuring you have the required funds to complete the purchase. This is an especially good approach when there are ample properties to choose from with little buyer competition. It’s important, however, to be prepared in the event you don’t find a home before your sale closes. You will need a place to stay while continuing your search.
One of the primary risks of selling first, though, is that you may end up priced out of the market if it swings upward quickly. In April and May 2020 for example many sellers, including some real estate agents themselves, speculated that COVID would put an end to Toronto’s red hot seller’s market and that we would soon be flooded with an oversupply of properties. Contributing to this belief was the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index which had Toronto high on the “bubble risk” score 2017 through 2019.3 However owners of detached, semi-detached and townhouse home types that sold in April and May 2020 were soon faced with a very rapid market recovery and higher average prices only a few months later. It was especially difficult for those April sellers that decided to wait for the market to cool down losing out on a 33% average home price increase only one year later.4 Some of these sellers are still waiting to re-enter the market.
While there is no “risk-free” approach it does help to keep yourself informed on market activity, government initiatives and real estate news. Having a Realtor® by your side advising you on market dynamics may also help to lower your risk. Realtors are often the first to identify the early signs of a changing market.